Technical report

Preliminary Investigation into Uncertainty-Aware Attack Stage Classification

01 August 2025 Alessandro Gaudenzi, Lorenzo Nodari, Lance M. Kaplan, Alessandra Russo, Murat Sensoy, Federico Cerutti

This report studies attack-stage classification with explicit uncertainty estimates so that systems do not overcommit to a rigid interpretation of threat progression.

That matters for cybersecurity because attack-stage estimates drive escalation, prioritisation, and mitigation choices. Uncertainty-aware outputs support safer operational decisions.